Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $64,704$ on 2020-11-07

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $752$ on 2020-11-07

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,542$ on 2020-11-07

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $211,913$ on 2020-11-07

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,749$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,021.3}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 38.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,021.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $121,864$ on 2020-11-07

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $902,490$ on 2020-11-07

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $41,063$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,483.7}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 47.8)}}\) (asimptote \(35,483.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $532,536$ on 2020-11-07

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,860,558$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,684,170.0}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 165.9)}}\) (asimptote \(10,684,170.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $237,113$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{229,352.7}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 100.8)}}\) (asimptote \(229,352.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,771,980$ on 2020-11-07

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,174,770$ on 2020-11-07

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $48,978$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,900.0}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 46.7)}}\) (asimptote \(41,900.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,122,827$ on 2020-11-07

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $146,461$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{109,112.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 118.0)}}\) (asimptote \(109,112.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,022$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,817.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 52.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,817.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $140,439$ on 2020-11-07

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $668,114$ on 2020-11-07

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11,306$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,328.3}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,328.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $243,324$ on 2020-11-07

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Singapore recovered 100%
Senegal recovered 99%
New Zealand recovered 95%
Israel recovered 88%
Saudi Arabia recovered 88%
Australia recovered 86%
Burkina Faso recovered 82%
South Africa recovered 78%
Trinidad and Tobago recovered 76%
El Salvador recovered 75%
Namibia recovered 71%
Bolivia recovered 68%
Tajikistan recovered 67%
Venezuela recovered 64%
India recovered 50%
Mozambique recovered 45%
Iceland recovered 43%
Bangladesh recovered 34%
Panama recovered 26%
Nepal recovered 24%
Ethiopia recovered 15%
Argentina recovered 14%
Czechia recovered 10%

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $58,054$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,814.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 118.6)}}\) (asimptote \(56,814.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27.0}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(27.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $58$ on 2020-11-07

Senegal⮸

Population $16,743,927$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,693$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,020.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 119.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16,020.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $326$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{325.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 105.1)}}\) (asimptote \(325.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50$ on 2020-11-07

New Zealand⮸

Population $4,822,233$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,982$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,653.6}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 28.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,653.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $25$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22.9}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 22.0)}}\) (asimptote \(22.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $48$ on 2020-11-07

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $318,949$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{446,485.5}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 211.8)}}\) (asimptote \(446,485.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,664$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88,214.2}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 436.2)}}\) (asimptote \(88,214.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,812$ on 2020-11-07